ben hourahine . com

Things I have learned this month

If you're interested in cultural icons, what's the first thing you wonder? cultural icons. What happens when 'proffessional cakes go horribly, hillariously wrong?' cake wreck. If you can't find a good tagline for your product...

Just insert 'chicken pitta' into someone elses. Eat that kwick fit.

More serious learnings next month.. promise.

Edinburgh International Television Festival

TV's Crystal Ball. Date: 23 August 2008 Time: 11:00-12:00 Venue: The Tinto

Producer: Claire Grimmond, Controller of Research & Insight,
Channel 4 Assistant Producer: Leonie Baird, Brand & Communications Research Manager,
Channel 4 Chair: Peter York, Brand Consultant, Author & Broadcaster

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Panellists: Ben Hourahine, Futures Editor, Leo Burnett
Melanie Howard, Author, 'The Future Unwrapped'
Nigel Walley, Managing Director, Decipher Consultancy Ltd Summary

What are the TV hits of the future?  Predicting tomorrow's hits today presents some real challenges for the futurologists.  In this session we fast forward to 2012 - as Olympic fever grips the UK and digital switchover is a reality. The big issue for everyone in broadcasting remains - how to get audiences engaged in content across a range of platforms. This session brings together experts from broadcasting and the media to help unlock the major trends and give us some clues to the next big territories, trends and approaches.

The Future of Money - New Leo Burnett Study

We have just finished a big project at LB looking at the Future of Money - Money Makes the World go Around. The research results are still being rolled out, but I have some topline findings to share with you dear reader.

The following is a quick overview and an interview conducted with me by Drew from LB Worldwide (click on the blog link to read the wisdom).

At the bottom of the post I've also included some other links to some nice material on the future of money.
I'll be sharing some more foresight from this work with you soon. Hopefully this will give us all a bit of cultural fuel to fight the social uncertainty.

> > Results from a research project conducted by Leo Burnett and released last week uncovered some intriguing findings into relationships between consumers and money around the world. Perhaps the most striking was that people associate words like “happiness,” “respect” and “recognition” with money much less than one would expect.

Other key insights include:

- Those in emerging markets are much more financially confident about the next 12 months than those in the West.

- Supermarkets are trusted more than banks, insurers and credit card companies.

- A meritocratic global economy has developed, leading people to view skills and intelligence (rather than country of birth or family name) as key factors that contribute to how much money one earns.

But there’s much more to this, and fortunately LB/London-based Futures Editor Ben Hourahine (who blogs at Brain of Ben Hourahine) was kind enough to answer a few questions via email about the study:

What did you expect going into this?

I hoped we would get to the bottom of what really matters to people when it comes to money and I think we have done that.

What surprised you most about the results?

The fact that supermarkets are more trusted than banks now globally. I think this highlights a long-term historical shift in both the commercial and brand landscape. 

One key finding was that people in "emerging markets are notably more financially confident about the next 12 months than those in the West." To what do you attribute this? Obviously the credit crunch is more pronounced in the West, but are there other factors?

Beyond current concerns, I think positivity is just endemic in places of emerging affluence.

That people in developing markets are more likely to associate money with success and status than their counterparts in the West was also interesting. Any thoughts on the disparity?

During the 1980's this association was strong in the West: money = success = happiness. Over the last 20 years the West has realised that while happiness may require money, it doesn't guarantee it, and in some instances may even work against it.

While the study found that "respect and recognition are the factors least associated with money," it also revealed the respondents believe "people today are more obsessed with money than in the past..." What do you think explains what seems to be a contradiction here?

People maybe more obsessed with money (or are, at least, perceived to be), but they seek money for things beyond simply the respect and recognition of others. 

One area where there seemed to be agreement across markets was the growing concern about climate change. Do you have any thoughts on how people tie personal financial health to climate change? What types of specific concerns are out there?

Climate change is now tangible; we can see it, breathe it and, in some instances, touch it. This is a fundamental change in any threat – the move from perception to physical reality. I am also predicting an acceleration of this paradigm shift during and following the Beijing Olympics – climate change could steal the entire show.

One finding that seems a bit counterintuitive was that "concerns about the unequal distribution of wealth seem less pronounced in developing markets," where the disparities are arguably more profound. What might explain this?

People are less concerned (about money) in places where it is still ultimately more about personal survival.

I found the rise of a "meritocracy" to one of the most interesting insights. To quote the study, "...skill, intelligence and personality are generally seen as the biggest factors in influencing likely income – far more than country of birth, family name and personal appearance." What do you think has played a role in that shift? Does globalization (i.e "the world is flat") have something to do with it?

Yes, a flatter world is fundamental to this and the opportunities offered by the Internet are critical here. More widely, this is about a shift in global attitudes, underpinned by the breakdown of racial stereotypes, class structures and gender divisions. 

The old axiom "money can't buy you happiness" is certainly supported here. Has there been a shift of late, or should this come as no surprise?

Previous studies have shown this to be an emerging trend for some time. What we have found out in this study, though, is what money does mean – luxury, security and survival to name a few.

I was surprised to read that financial markets fall toward the middle of the "trustworthiness" scale – they rank higher in trust than politicians, but lower than supermarkets! Any idea as to how this happened?

The liberalisation and development of more competitive markets in finance has broadened the spectrum of institutions involved and, in turn, broadened the spectrum of opinion. The global finance market now contains many unfamiliar, and unfortunately, some unscrupulous brands. More fundamentally, I think there is a deeper disconnect. Trust is absolutely critical in finance. Finance wants to make money; so do consumers. Unfortunately there is a perception that when finance makes money it is at the consumer's expense.

Finally, as the Futures Editor, what do these findings suggest for the near- and long-term future? What key takeaways do you think marketers should note about the study?

At the risk of repeating myself, I can't talk about ‘trust’ enough, and it is something the Futures Team monitors closely. 

Moving forward, the banks of the future will have the same interests as their consumers -- their human purpose is deeply confusing at the moment – they will be forced to get to the heart of what they mean to people.

Beyond this, I think we are seeing a 'new realism' emerging. This applies to what money means to people, it applies to our economic confidence and it applies to the role of financial brands in our lives. I think the speculative and emotive monetary era is being replaced by a much more tangible and meaningful global mindset.

Thanks, Ben.'

More on money: 

Credit Card of the Future by Jacob Palmborg via Yanko Design, which reminds me of the paper I wrote with Melanie Howard on Mobile Banking Some time Ago: Money on the move: Opportunities for financial service providers in the 'third space'. Via The Journal of Financial Services Marketing.For more long-term scenarios Ray Poynter from the Future Place Blog has a nice round-up of videos on the Future of Banking although the first is about mobile finance again, the next two show some nice future visualisation work.

 

Quoted in the Press: A Jeweler Joins Its Friends on MySpace - New York Times

A Jeweler Joins Its Friends on MySpace
By Eric Pfanner
July 31, 2008
New York Times

ON MySpace, the social networking Web site, the rock band Panic at the Disco has 1.4 million friends. Coldplay has 467,000 friends. Paris Hilton has 178,000 friends and Madonna has 397,000.

As for Cartier, the luxury jeweler, it has more than 3,800 friends, including Sting, the band Good Charlotte and Lou Reed. And while the sincerity of these friendships is questionable — when was the last time that Eric Clapton sent Cartier a birthday card, or vice versa? — they send a message that Cartier cares about people who spend their time on MySpace.

Cartier, owned by Richemont of France, is one of the first luxury brands to hang out its shingle on a social networking site, for fairly obvious reasons. How do you market items of the you-can’t-afford-it-if-you-have-to-ask-the-price variety to a population that is heavily represented by people who make their money by baby-sitting and mowing lawns?

“To work in the luxury environment, it means being a step in advance sometimes,” Corinne Delattre, director of communications at Cartier, said. “We work with people moving fast. They use technology. They are ahead in their way of life.”

On its MySpace site (myspace.com/lovebycartier), Cartier has many friends who it hopes fit this description. Most of them are not famous, but the jeweler is counting on them nonetheless to spread the vibe through the social network and beyond.

The MySpace profile was set up to advertise jewelry in Cartier’s Love collection, but visitors can also sample music from artists like Lou Reed and Grand National, including several songs with the theme of love that were composed for Cartier. They can watch film clips with a romantic story line. And, of course, they can click on any of those friends’ pictures to visit their profiles.

The possibility of blending entertainment and marketing and spreading it through chain letter-style links has many marketers excited about social networking. But luxury brands, worried about the company they keep, have been reluctant to become involved with the likes of MySpace or Facebook. Cartier took the risk, Ms. Delattre said, because it was a “different way to talk to a young audience.”

Actually, many expensive brands have been slow to move to the Internet generally, let alone to freewheeling frontiers like social networks. Some brand owners have spent years battling eBay, the online auction site, contending that it does too little to curb sales of fakes. Others have clashed with Google over its advertising system, which has allowed rival marketers to snatch away trademarks as search keywords.

A number of fashion and luxury companies have advertised on ASmallWorld, an invitation-only social network aimed at wealthy consumers. Now some of them are getting their first exposure to mainstream, mass-market social networks. Some have “fan pages” on Facebook, which allow people to post videos of themselves wearing their favorite designer fashions, for example.

But practically anyone can set up a page on Facebook, at no cost, which demonstrates two of the biggest problems with social networking as an advertising medium. One, for the advertiser, is a lack of control over the process. The other, for the network owner, is the lack of money changing hands: if “fans” of a luxury brand voluntarily tell their friends about it, why should the brand owner spend any money to do so?

Though ad spending on MySpace has trailed expectations, the company, part of the News Corporation, thinks it has solved some of the problem, with the Cartier campaign serving as a model. MySpace requires big marketers that want to create profiles to pay for the space, though it declined to say how much Cartier was being charged for its yearlong campaign.

In return, MySpace takes steps to drive traffic to advertisers’ profiles and to ensure that the material that appears on them “respects the brand’s objectives,” as Damien Vincent, head of sales at MySpace France, put it. In the case of Cartier, that means weeding out some would-be friends. Candidates whose photos show them guzzling a beer at a party, for instance, are unlikely to make the cut, Mr. Vincent said.

MySpace is eager to show that its audience extends beyond teenagers looking to kill time after school. Eighty-five percent of American users are over 18, it says. “I think there’s a huge potential market for luxury advertisers,” said Jamie Kantrowitz, senior vice president for content and marketing at MySpace International.

Ben Hourahine, futures editor at the London branch of the advertising agency Leo Burnett, said the use of social networks was appropriate at a time when consumer attitudes about luxury were changing. In a recent survey of American consumers by the agency, only 7 percent said they thought “luxury” meant being part of an exclusive club.

“Luxury brands in the past had this unattainable aspect to them,” he said. “Now they realize they need to connect and communicate with people.”

Quoted in the Press: Organic Food & Luxury Consumers - Marketing Magazine

Organic food is suffering, but observers suggest opportunities may emerge from the downturn.

by Jemima Bokaie Marketing 22-Jul-08

Last week, Marketing revealed that rising costs and an accompanying consumer shift away from premium and mainstream supermarkets to their discount rivals could mean that the appetite for organic food is on the wane.

The Soil Association meanwhile claimed that this marked a plateau rather than a decline and that the sector will, in fact, grow 10% this year.

 

Nonetheless, the economic down-turn appears to have split organic consumers into four groups: the wealthy who are unaffected by the credit crunch; committed organic shoppers who refuse to defect in the face of consumer slowdown; the less committed; and lower-income customers who are budget buying.

The challenge for organic brands and retailers offering organic ranges lies in convincing the two groups to stay organic as they tighten their purse strings.

There are other obstacles the organic food market faces - organic brands, which can often cost up to 50% more than regular products, face non-economic consumer concerns such as the number of food miles they entail. Terms such as 'ethically sourced' and 'locally sourced' have also clouded consumer confidence in the sector.

Moreover, the European Commission's controversial organic logo, which has been criticised for its effect on more established schemes, looks set to cause further confusion when it is introduced in 2010. The Soil Association also warns that the universal logo 'goes against the trend for more local, regionally distinctive produce and could lead to dilution of organic standards'.

For their part, British consumers are beginning to raise questions about the health benefits of organic produce, including the absence of added vitamins and minerals. Weetabix's regular cereal, for example, contains added iron; its organic range, however, does not.

The Food Standards Agency stated last year that there is not sufficient scientific evidence to support the claim that organic food is safer or more nutritious than conventionally produced alternatives. In addition, it is undetermined whether organic food tastes better.

Given these challenges, we asked some key industry figures for their opinions on the state of the organic market.

INDUSTRY OPINIONS - KEEPING CONSUMERS ORGANIC

Although the credit crunch may be hitting people's willingness to spend money on luxuries, premium food brands are seeing a trend of people eating out less and choosing to give themselves small treats at home more often. The credit crunch is providing a good opportunity for premium organic brands that deliver a great taste to become part of the meal repertoire.

- GEMMA KEW, Brand manager, Seeds of Change

Our 2008 ImagePower Green survey reveals that despite economic concerns, British consumers' desire to make an environmental contribution remains strong. 80% plan to spend as much, or more, on green products such as organic food and services this year as they did in 2007.

- STEPHANIE BROWN, Marketing and communications director, Landor

Organic is increasingly seen as a question of health rather than money, and another food scare could make organic food something consumers feel they can't afford to live without.

- BEN HOURAHINE, Futures editor, Leo Burnett

We have seen tremendous growth in recent weeks with clients that are niche organic brands. It is worth remembering that the organic market has grown to become more mass market, but was initially the choice of more discerning and affluent consumers. It may need to shrink a little and target its core shoppers before it grows again.

- GIDEON KARMILOFF, Managing director, Vivid Brand

All groups have been affected by the changes. Interestingly, you saw a change in the metrics almost on the day of Northern Rock, so it did have an impact. Richer groups are slightly less affected. People don't change; if you're the sort of person who buys organics or ready meals, your personality doesn't change just because there's been a Northern Rock crisis - but everyone wants a bit more value, so you see a little change right across the board.

- LUCY NEVILLE-ROLFE, Executive director of corporate and legal affairs, Tesco

Food miles are an extremely dangerous distraction, given that a lot of poor countries for whom agriculture is the best hope of enrichment are situated a long way from richer countries that will pay decent prices for their food.

- RORY SUTHERLAND, Executive creative director and vice-chairman, Ogilvy.