ben hourahine . com

Is the future the sum of all trends?

I have been procrastinating over a question asked by the wonderful Meredith Etherington-Smith, which she put to me on the futures blog about page some time ago.

Why? Because it is a very good question and it really hits the sweet spot right in the middle of this Industry:

Hi - Fascinating idea being a Futurist. What is the difference between predicting the future and predicting trends which are - if predicted far forward enough- predicting the shape and the content of the future?.

The nub of this issue is what is a trend? And what is the future?

My first response, which avoids both of these questions, is a futurist should be able to predict trends before they happen and that is the difference between a trend spotter and a futurist.

To attempt to clarify the first two questions, here is a start for now: Trends are not uniform and the distinction between drivers and outputs is important. Often change will produce outputs which counter the original trend. For example 'the aging population' is a longterm demographic driver, but the trend of the 'new young' - 'Age is relative and I am as old as I feel' - goes directly against this dynamic.

So yes, in a way, the future is a composite of all the trends that are out there, but the linearity of this is not given, it is very dangerous to read from A to B using trends.

I am going to have to leave it there for now because, to be honest, there's a life's work in this. But I have started - trend tree - I am hoping to pick apart exactly how this relationship between trends and the future operates.

Thanks Meredith, a brilliant question and a fascinating area to talk about.

the future of research

Forecasting without doing any research is a dangerous business. As proof of this pudding, the majority of the forecasting profession still sits within the research industry broadly defined. More on the how research works with forecasting later, but for now, a lot of stuff on the future of research has passed my mental desk of late. First up is this excellent set of presentations from the Advertising Research Foundation on The Research Company of the Future presented by Scribe Media (Thanks to Michael Cervieri and the team for producing a never ending stream of quality content - also check out his recent weather report):

Appearing together for the first time ever, the CEOs of the “Big Four” global market research companies explain their vision for their companies and where they see the industry going > > >

Lee McEwan is on to this and I'll leave the perceptive commentary there for now.

To push the boat out further on this topic and bring in one of the most jaw dropping submissions we have ever had to i spy cool, may I present we feel fine:

This has to be seen to be believed.

This amazing invention from Jonathan Harris and Sepandar Kamvar tracks emotions across the Internet and shows you how people are feeling all over the world at this very moment. Try out the 'mounds' view, indeed try them all, there are strong sign posts here on the visualisation of information, as well as its collection and analysis.

understanding futures

I feel I should offer up a little bit more on what futures is all about. Most of the projects I have worked on start with the question; what is the future of …….? Whenever I attempt to explain my profession, this question above all others, seems to make my job tangible. Things can get a bit more complicated from here on in, but in essence, that is the question every Futurist is trying to answer in regard to their subject matter. Part of my personal agenda in writing this blog is to externalise the processes I go through, but I don’t want to leave you hanging. Have a look at this - An Overview of Forecasting Methodologies by David S. Walonick - I’m not saying I agree 100% with the content, but at least it puts the roots of the discipline into context.